Password from 3rd floor
On June 20, Life Funds for North Korean Refugees (LFNKR) hosted a lecture in Tokyo by Mr. Thae Yong-ho, former North Korean Deputy Ambassador to the UK who defected to South Korea in 2016. The event was held with the kind support of several international rights organizations, including International Parliamentarians’ Coalition for North Korea Refugees and Human Rights (IPCNKR), Action for Korea United, NO FENCE, and The Society to Help Returnees to North Korea.
Mr. Thae’s lecture coincided with publication of the Japanese version of his recent best seller titled Password From 3rd floor. This book, based on his own shocking personal experiences, sold over 100,000 copies in South Korea in the first three weeks of its release.
For security reasons, attendance at the lecture was restricted to fewer than 90 people, including select journalists. All were required to register in advance.
Mr. Thae talked about North Korea’s nuclear tactics and also discussed how we should release oppressed people from slavery in an oppressive society.
He began with a quick overview of how North Korea has become a nuclear-armed nation. He also covered the most recent summit talks between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Hanoi in February. His analyses of the recent three summit discussions between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un and the two summit talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un may be summarized as follows:
Kim Jong-un has been moving ahead on establishing the status of North Korea as a nuclear power in the international community, and his main successes up to 2018 include:
1. The conventional basic principle was “true denuclearization first, rewards after.” This has been replaced by “Improving the relationship between North Korea and South Korea first, denuclearization after” due to the Panmunjom Declaration (April, 2018).
2. According to the Joint Statement from Singapore Summit (June 2018), the process for denuclearization of North Korea agreed upon was set in the order of “building up trust,” “improving the relationship between the US and North Korea,” “establishing a system for peace in the Korean Peninsula,” and “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
3. North Korea is completely exempt from military threats from outside, while keeping their hydrogen bombs and ICBM intact.
4. Kim Jong-un evaded additional sanctions by continuing the summit talks with the US.
However, the summit talk in Hanoi utterly failed Kim Jong-un’s expectation. He was expecting the lifting of sanctions, but that did not happen.
Mr. Thae praised the results of the Hanoi Summit because he believes that the international community has wasted the past 30 years in trying to cope with North Korean nuclear tactics. This failure was mainly because of a string of bad decisions, trial and error, and a neglect-riddled attitude. During the past 30 years, North Korea has successfully gained considerable support from abroad, including the supply of heavy oil from the US. This allowed North Korea to focus on proceeding with the development of nuclear weapons. Mr. Thae believes that if powerful sanctions had been applied to North Korea back in 1993 or even 2006 when their first nuclear test was conducted, the world community would not now face the current serious nuclear threat from North Korea.
On the other hand, from the Hanoi Summit, the US has become convinced that the sanctions begun in 2017 actually are applying pressure on North Korea, and that Pyongyang still has no intention of abandoning their nuclear weapons. In addition, Kim Jong-un’s response to the deal (neither confirming nor denying) “dismantling theYongbyong nuclear complex + alpha” proposed by Donald Trump has convinced the US that North Korea has hidden nuclear weapon production facilities. Suspicions of hidden facilities have arisen as an additional issue. Also, President Trump has found that he could not ignore the opinions of such hard-liners as John Bolton.
Mr. Thae mentioned that the worst case result was avoided at the Hanoi Summit because no agreement was reached between the two, meaning that the current sanctions would continue and the denuclearization negotiations with North Korea are back to the beginning. However, Mr. Thae thinks that disclosing the hidden nuclear complexes is not enough, and more importantly, President Trump should have demanded that North Korea hand over all the nuclear weapons and missiles they already have.
Mr. Thae repeatedly said that we should never expect North Korea to agree to complete denuclearization even if we guarantee the security of the current regime or provide them with enormous financial support. So, there is no practical method for us to persuade North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons; thus, sanctions are almost the only hope. We have to wait until the regime collapses or drastically changes due to prolonged economic difficulties.
We must not forget the dangerous possibility that President Trump could be deceived by disguised denuclearization and agree to partial lifting of the sanctions. If North Korea were to get the sanctions lifted and receive economic support and the like as a reward in return for their disguised partial denuclearization, then Kim Jong-un would become even more strongly fixated on the possession of nuclear weapons. This would further add to his absolute power in the country.
During the Q&A session, one of the participants asked “what are the weak points of the North Korean regime?” Here is a summary of Mr. Thae’s answer.
The North Korean regime is supported by three major pillars – the first pillar is absolute isolation, the second pillar is violence represented by public executions and political prison camps, and the third pillar is the blackmailing of other countries. Among these three, we could do something about the first one, isolation.
The North Korean government has long been in a state of failure; the people no longer trust their government and are starting to think that there should be better ways. Meanwhile, increasing numbers of South Korean TV dramas and movies are smuggled into North Korea, allowing many in North Korea to discover the lies being told by their government. This is what Kim Jong-un most fears.
Mr. Thae said that prolonged economic sanctions have greatly motivated people in North Korea to continue expanding the private markets operated by the people themselves. In the future, there may be a struggle between the government and the market people, but the market people will win. The victory of the markets was proven back in 2009 when the government pressed forward with currency reform. The sudden change in the currency faced unexpectedly strong resistance from people and had to be ended in just one month. So, the longer and more stringently sanctions are applied, the more market activities in North Korea will grow, and this should lead to a change in the country.
Whenever summit talks or other high-level official talks are held, the human rights issue of North Korea should be brought up without fail, Mr. Thae said. Constantly demanding the improvement of the human rights situation in North Korea in official dialogues with its leaders would pressure them to make changes. Right now, about 100,000 North Koreans are being dispatched abroad, and many of them are engaged in construction work. Five years ago, none of them were wearing safety helmets, but NGOs in the western countries disclosed it and raised an outcry, and now the North Korean workers over there are given the safety helmets. This is one typical example showing that we could do something to contribute to improvement. Also, we should keep on pressuring North Korea to improve their human rights issue by, for example, repeatedly releasing photos of the prison camps to the international community, and continuing to expose their child abuses, typically represented by their mass games.
Mr. Thae Yong-ho’s speech communicated clearly his sincere passion for liberating the oppressed North Korean people.